Leicester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 13)
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Brighton & Hove Albion suffered yet another undeserved defeat against Southampton on Monday, leaving them in 16th place after 11 matches. Meanwhile, Leicester City stole three points from Sheffield United thanks to a late Jamie Vardy goal to keep the Foxes in the top four.
The two sides will meet on Sunday in Leicester, with Brighton needing points to push further away from the relegation zone and the Foxes trying to remain in the top four as we enter the crowded festive period.Brighton
No team has underachieved their underlying numbers in the Premier League more than the Seagulls. Brighton are eerily similar to Southampton from last season, when the Saints started slow despite good performances.
Under manager Graham Potter, the Seagulls are pressing more, passing more and possessing the ball more. The results haven’t been reflective of their impressive underlying numbers.
At times, it can be nauseating when Brighton keep losing games and dropping points despite outplaying their opponents. But expected goal data (xG) has been proven to be the best predictor of a team’s future results. According to Understat’s expected points model, the Seagulls should be fourth in the Premier League. They are 16th. Brighton rank sixth in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD), fourth in pressing intensity and sixth in progressive passes.
No team in the Premier League has had their opponents score a higher percentage of their shots on target than the Seagulls. That will regress to the mean because their goalie play has been average. They’ve just been finished on better than every other team.
Meanwhile, no team has overachieved their underlying numbers in the Premier League more than the Foxes. Part of this is due to game state because of the absurd number of penalties that Leicester have been awarded, but the Foxes actually have a negative NPxG difference in 2020-21.
They could be bolstered by the return of two of their main creative players in midfielder James Maddison and fullback Ricardo Periera, but neither will be back to full form for this match.
Leicester, like Manchester United last season, were the biggest beneficiaries of penalties awarded in the entire league. That will regress, and it inflates both Leicester’s place in the table and their goals for totals. The Foxes are one of six teams to average fewer than 10 shots per game.
While their results look a lot like the start of the 2019-20 season — when the Foxes started hot and were as high as second in the table — their performances look much more pedestrian.Betting Analysis
I’ve been looking forward to this spot for a few weeks with a chance to bet on Brighton. (Here’s to the inevitable Vardy wonder goal to beat Brighton again.)
I make Leicester +125 in this one and I don’t trust the Seagulls to win this, so I’ll take them on the draw no bet line.
Pick: Brighton — Draw No Bet (+135)[Bet Leicester City-Brighton now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]