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Australian Open Best Bet: Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Sonego

Australian Open Best Bet Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego
Sonego beat Shelton in four sets at Roland Garros two years ago, but the American will like his chances on his favorite surface. 

INTERVIEW: Lorenzo Sonego on his "fearless" attitude, and tattoo ⬆️

When it comes to raw power and athletic ability, not many players can top Shelton. He punishes the ball from the baseline and has a great set of wheels for his size.

Beyond that, the tennis we’ll see should also favor the American. Shelton is one of the best servers on tour, with a monster 90.0% hold percentage on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. His serve should only to look better against Sonego, whose 13.5% break percentage in 2024 was absurdly low. His inability to consistently put returns in play played a huge role in Sonego's 22-30 record last year. His statistics last year make it hard to believe in his hot start to 2025.

I also believe Shelton has done some valuable prep work in the offseason. His return game definitely needs some more seasoning, but his backhand looks a little better, and he’s making better decisions in key moments. The latter should serve him very well in a match like this, which could feature some tight sets —and possibly even a couple of tiebreakers. Shelton will need to be smart in pressure points, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be right now.

There just isn’t much that Sonego does better than Shelton, so it’s hard to imagine him doing too much damage against the American on his favorite surface.

Pick: Shelton -1.5 Sets (-141)

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