UFC 256: Junior Dos Santos vs. Ciryl Gane odds, picks and prediction
In a heavyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Junior Dos Santos and Ciryl Gane meet at UFC 256 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Dos Santos (21-8) steps in as the decisive underdog. He has a four-inch reach disadvantage against his unbeaten counterpart. In addition, he has 4.59 significant strikes landed per minute to 5.12 for Gane, and he is slightly behind in significant strikes-accuracy percentage at 49.71 to 48.24. Dos Santos enters this one on a three-bout losing skid, falling to Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, all by way of KO/TKO. In fact, each of Dos Santos’ past five fights have finished via knockout, including a pair of wins. He is 3-3 since his title-shot loss to Stipe Miocic May 13, 2017, which seems so long ago now.
Gane (6-0) has quickly risen to be one of the best in the division. He has just six pro fights under his belt, but they’re all wins, including a 3-0 mark since arriving at the UFC level. Two of those victories have come via submission, including a Round 1 stoppage in his UFC debut against Raphael Pessoa Aug. 10, 2019. He went the distance against Tanner Boser last time out on Dec. 21, 2019, his first time being unable to get a stoppage in his six outings.
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Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:04 a.m. ET.
Gane (-450) is a heavy, heavy favorite, but you cannot risk four and a half times your potential return, even on an unbeaten fighter facing an aging veteran on a three-bout losing skid.
GANE BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-150) is the better play on the 5-way line. As such, this one won’t go the distance, but playing No (-250) is just too expensive. Instead, target UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-185) for a slightly better value. Also, going with GANE IN ROUND 1 (+210) and GANE IN ROUND 2 (+375) on the round betting lines is a good value if he can win in either of the first two rounds. Yes, you will lose one end, but you’ll still be well ahead if he cashes in either, particularly if he wins in the second.
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